In early March, three banks in the United States went bankrupt successively, and then the risk was transmitted to Europe, where Credit Suisse was also merged and acquired.

Just when everyone thought that the wave of bank bankruptcies in Europe and America would continue, the risk seemed to be under control. Now, more than a month and a half has passed, and the market has gradually returned to calm.

However, last night, another regional bank's stock price plummeted by 50% in the US stock market.

At the same time, Buffett also claimed that the wave of bank closures in the United States is far from over.

01, Buffett's judgment

A few days ago, Buffett said in an interview with Tokyo media that from now on, within 20 years, Japan and the United States will become stronger and stronger.

At that time, Buffett analyzed in detail the investment direction, economic development trend, and problems and prospects faced in the process of globalization from multiple aspects of the United States and Japan.

From the current economic situation, the stock god Buffett believes that the United States has a great international competitive advantage in some aspects of high-tech innovation compared to Japan.

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Looking at the economic development situation of the two countries, the economic growth rate of both countries is constantly rising, and both countries are vigorously developing high-tech innovative industries, so Buffett is very optimistic about the future development of the two countries.

However, when Buffett faces domestic media, he appears more calm and objective. He frankly pointed out that the wave of bank bankruptcies affecting the United States still has the possibility of further fermentation.02, Another Bank's Stock Price Halves Overnight

Hardly had Buffett finished speaking when the stock price of a bank plummeted by half overnight.

Due to First Republic Bank's data showing a significant loss of deposits in the first quarter of this year, the company's stock price fell by 49.37% at the close, hitting a historical low. However, the trading volume reached a high of $1.9 billion, ranking 14th in the entire stock market.

Currently, after a 40% loss of deposits, the bank only has slightly over $100 billion left. As a result, First Republic Bank had to announce that it is about to sell approximately $100 billion in assets to prepare for sufficient liquidity.

This scene is very similar to the performance of Silicon Valley Bank at the time, which also planned to sell assets after a large loss of deposits, triggering a continuous decline in stock prices and a frantic run on the bank by depositors, eventually leading to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.

If not handled properly, First Republic Bank in the United States may also follow the path of bankruptcy like Silicon Valley Bank.

Buffett's warning may take effect immediately.

03, Deepening Dollar Depreciation Intensifies Recession

Affected by this, people do not dare to have too much expectation for the economic growth of the United States this year.

Previously, a professional institution predicted that the economic growth of the United States for the entire year of 2023 would drop to 1.3%, but the actual number may be even worse.Tomorrow, the United States will announce the GDP data for the first quarter. With the continuous devaluation of the US dollar over this period, ongoing bank turmoil, and the temporary lack of improvement in US Treasury bonds, the possibility of the United States falling into a recession is increasing due to the叠加 of multiple factors.

Although there are many factors causing the devaluation of the US dollar, overall, its trend is very clear. In the future, the US dollar will continue to depreciate, and this trend will further accelerate as the economic strength and international status of other countries continue to surpass that of the United States.

In addition, due to the widespread application of digital currencies worldwide, a new international reserve currency may emerge in the future, which will impact the status of the US dollar.

No matter what, the downward trend of the US dollar is irreversible, and its future trend is full of uncertainties, and countries have already been mentally prepared.

The resulting wave of US Treasury bond selling and the trend of de-dollarization are showing signs of intensifying.