The banking crisis in the United States has not dissipated; it now appears to be in a state of continuous deterioration.
During this period, regardless of the performance of the U.S. stock market or some of the economic data in the United States, the problems do not seem too significant.
U.S. President Joe Biden also claimed that the current economic situation in the United States is quite good and will not fall into a recession, with a soft landing still very likely to be achieved.
However, his words were still ringing in our ears when a harsh slap in the face appeared; another regional bank in the United States has seen its performance deteriorate, its stock price plummet, and it is on the verge of bankruptcy.
01. Crisis Intensifies
The U.S. national debt ceiling is approaching, which is also the main reason why the U.S. stock market is fluctuating at high levels. Under these circumstances, the risk remains significant.
Therefore, no matter from which perspective, when the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates, the maturity date of U.S. Treasury bonds is approaching, and inflation is difficult to control, assets denominated in U.S. dollars are dangerous.
However, due to the relative stability of the U.S. financial market during this period, many people have forgotten about the crisis. Regardless of looking at this week or this month, the three major U.S. indices are all on the rise, which further leads investors to bet that the U.S. stock market will rise again.
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But at this moment, the decline in the stock price of First Republic Bank in the United States has sounded an alarm for everyone, and it is very clear that the banking crisis in the United States is gradually worsening.
Although everyone had anticipated this before, after the bank released its performance data, it still came as a great surprise. Subsequently, the stock price of First Republic Bank in the United States experienced a continuous decline for several days.The bank's stock price once soared above $100, but now it's down to just $3, with a staggering 97% drop this year alone, 95% of which occurred after the bank crisis erupted on March 8th.
A fourth bankrupt bank has emerged!
02, The U.S. debt crisis leads to a banking crisis
The United States is now facing a multitude of crises, with economic recession, financial turmoil, and inflation all intertwined.
In the past, the U.S. was the world's largest economy, reaping benefits while shifting crises onto others.
However, this tactic is no longer viable, due to the continuous decline in the status of the U.S. dollar and the continuous selling of U.S. debt. Tools that were once used to export crises have now become instruments that harm themselves.
Initially, many countries merely wanted to treat U.S. debt as an investment.
But over the past two years, the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt have become weapons for the United States.
Shortly after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. imposed a series of sanctions on Russia, one after another. Within less than a day, Russia was expelled from the Swift system, and all $300 billion were frozen.
This has led to more countries being unwilling to hold U.S. debt, for fear that their own security will be affected in the future. Amid a frenzy of selling U.S. debt, its price has plummeted.At this moment, a backlash against the United States has emerged.
Due to the decline in U.S. Treasury bonds, the bonds held by Silicon Valley Bank suffered significant losses, which affected the confidence of depositors, leading to a massive outflow of deposits, and ultimately, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.
Now, the same scenario is unfolding at the First Republic Bank in the United States, and it is estimated that in the near future, we will see other banks facing similar bankruptcy crises.
03, Speaking Nonsense with Eyes Open
A couple of days ago, the United States just released its GDP data, with the growth rate clearly lower than the previous quarter and far from meeting market expectations. However, the President of the United States still insists that through this GDP report, he sees that the U.S. economy remains robust.
This is not the first time Biden has spoken nonsense with his eyes open. On multiple occasions in the past, after the release of economic data that was clearly not ideal, he still pretended to be full of confidence.
This may also be the reason why Biden's approval ratings continue to decline in voter surveys.
However, Wall Street giants are not so optimistic. JPMorgan Chase has already predicted that the United States will enter a recession in the next quarter, with GDP growth turning negative.
On the other hand, the U.S. housing sales data also shows a very pessimistic signal.
Compared to the previous month, sales in March plummeted by 5.2%, which is the largest decline in more than half a year.